WNBA · resolved market
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7003486d043ec565b557884dbd272c208e1a5e9268ec8f2f26a914a806fed67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 2,111$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.46 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 1,708$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.08 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 53c | 843.4$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 299.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 293.9$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…644abacked Over | 72c | 139.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 99.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 46c | 65.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 51c | 50.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 45.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 62c | 41.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 72c | 40.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…9c2fbacked Over | 50c | 39.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5this page
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.