Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38407f2112aa1cb71e1eb5a8a7cdfb988a7c32534974c1026cf687e9564a3394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim RedForceof Paper Rex, Nongshim RedForce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d2…4850backed Paper Rex | 1c | 9,818$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…91babacked Nongshim RedForce | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…f06ebacked Paper Rex | 48c | 1,038$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Nongshim RedForce | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed Nongshim RedForce | 49c | 699.8$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.5 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…2988backed Nongshim RedForce | 46c | 619.73$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.39 | 262 | 55%144 W · 118 L | +13.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Paper Rex | 50c | 565.37$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 1,503 | 46.5%699 W · 804 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…9fb9backed Paper Rex | 44c | 563.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Nongshim RedForce | 54c | 487.44$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.97 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…3338backed Paper Rex | 27c | 469.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…c372backed Paper Rex | 47c | 462.44$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Nongshim RedForce | 56c | 461$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.04 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Paper Rex | 54c | 370.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Paper Rex | 52c | 337.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Paper Rex | 50c | 302.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2b…9b9ebacked Nongshim RedForce | 74c | 250.22$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…2013backed Paper Rex | 26c | 231.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 193 | 34.7%67 W · 126 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…3492backed Nongshim RedForce | 53c | 226.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Paper Rex | 47c | 214.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +36.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Paper Rex | 54c | 205$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 1,428 | 51.2%731 W · 697 L | +48.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Paper Rex | 48c | 192.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 393 | 48.1%189 W · 204 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Paper Rex | 40c | 178.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 943 | 49.5%467 W · 476 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked Paper Rex | 52c | 164.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…1caabacked Paper Rex | 50c | 163$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…bee1backed Nongshim RedForce | 63c | 155.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…1799backed Nongshim RedForce | 48c | 131.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f4…c220backed Paper Rex | 47c | 124.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Nongshim RedForce | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…5554backed Nongshim RedForce | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed Paper Rex | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…4a76backed Nongshim RedForce | 73c | 101.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 155 | 61.3%95 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…8380backed Paper Rex | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9133…20acbacked Paper Rex | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -45%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Paper Rex | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 346 | 47.7%165 W · 181 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Nongshim RedForce | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nongshim RedForce | 54c | 86.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 902 | 44.3%400 W · 502 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Paper Rex | 43c | 86.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 709 | 43.6%309 W · 400 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Paper Rex | 31c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 824 | 35%288 W · 536 L | -61.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Nongshim RedForce | 73c | 66.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Paper Rex | 48c | 63.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 1,261 | 49.6%625 W · 636 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nongshim RedForce | 69c | 62.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,318 | 43.9%578 W · 740 L | -44.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…ffc2backed Paper Rex | 48c | 62.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Paper Rex | 46c | 59.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 540 | 41.9%226 W · 314 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Nongshim RedForce | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nongshim RedForce | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 918 | 33%303 W · 615 L | -91.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nongshim RedForce | 75c | 50.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 754 | 42.8%323 W · 431 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Paper Rex | 26c | 49.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 974 | 45.1%439 W · 535 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…fd41backed Paper Rex | 33c | 45.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Nongshim RedForce | 53c | 41.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…2c70backed Nongshim RedForce | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 136 | 61.8%84 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…b1d2backed Paper Rex | 45c | 40.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.7wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…e1f2backed Paper Rex | 58c | 39.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…1095backed Nongshim RedForce | 75c | 39.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 124 | 71.8%89 W · 35 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Nongshim RedForce | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 517 | 44.7%231 W · 286 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Nongshim RedForce | 56c | 34.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Nongshim RedForce | 65c | 30.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 281 | 61.2%172 W · 109 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…6715backed Nongshim RedForce | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Paper Rex | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Nongshim RedForce | 69c | 26.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 790 | 44.3%350 W · 440 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…a007backed Paper Rex | 58c | 24.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…0128backed Nongshim RedForce | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Nongshim RedForce | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Nongshim RedForce | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 413 | 46.5%192 W · 221 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Nongshim RedForce | 64c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 206 | 39.8%82 W · 124 L | -17.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Paper Rex vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: Paper Rex vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific PlayoffsNongshim RedForce won
- Valorant: Paper Rex vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 WinnerNongshim RedForce won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.