TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim RedForceof Paper Rex, Nongshim RedForce
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed Nongshim RedForce70c7,787$5,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.4325855.4%143 W · 115 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed Nongshim RedForce45c7,734$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,253.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Nongshim RedForce74c5,299$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.1860423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Nongshim RedForce45c4,011$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.1319951.8%103 W · 96 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Paper Rex52c3,324$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.594153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Paper Rex54c3,029$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.7219960.3%120 W · 79 L+17.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Paper Rex55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6503852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Paper Rex38c3,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.973132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x97ba…fc2ebacked Nongshim RedForce48c2,978$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.27540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb1…aebabacked Paper Rex55c2,751$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.064845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nongshim RedForce44c2,063$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.0742035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Paper Rex25c2,002$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5315347.1%72 W · 81 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Paper Rex29c1,796$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.891,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Paper Rex50c1,675$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.27940.5%32 W · 47 L-15.6wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb778…6492backed Paper Rex55c1,442$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.11478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8e…37d1backed Paper Rex25c1,218$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3103033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Paper Rex40c1,100$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9939142.5%166 W · 225 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Paper Rex27c1,082$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9746526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed Paper Rex56c1,068$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5987949.4%39 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Nongshim RedForce46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5408842%37 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Paper Rex56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Nongshim RedForce46c651.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.0719856.1%111 W · 87 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Nongshim RedForce48c647.46$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.996355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Paper Rex31c646.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1978344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Paper Rex32c585.08$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6257550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Paper Rex30c577.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0381834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Paper Rex30c536.36$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9275142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed Nongshim RedForce68c509.17$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.692744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f9a…000dbacked Nongshim RedForce46c504.7$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.621353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Paper Rex32c496.36$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5440…f13bbacked Nongshim RedForce49c474.86$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2435754.4%31 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Paper Rex26c452.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9996945%436 W · 533 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Nongshim RedForce68c449.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445364.2%34 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+33.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Paper Rex31c437.9$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7270543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Nongshim RedForce46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7820855.8%116 W · 92 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Paper Rex59c411.32$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4363056.3%355 W · 275 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Nongshim RedForce46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2166753.7%36 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Paper Rex50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe08b…614fbacked Paper Rex47c398.18$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.351136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex38c397.04$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9289344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Nongshim RedForce80c373.21$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.642065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+57.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Paper Rex55c364$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.213843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Paper Rex55c363.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Paper Rex33c360.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1419134.6%66 W · 125 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed Paper Rex30c358.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9522058.6%129 W · 91 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nongshim RedForce71c342.61$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.71,38047.1%650 W · 730 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Paper Rex51c341.52$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.518148.1%87 W · 94 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Paper Rex32c336.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.191,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Paper Rex55c333.04$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1760454%326 W · 278 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Nongshim RedForce63c323.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.832241.9%135 W · 187 L-15.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed03…1caabacked Paper Rex51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed Nongshim RedForce45c299.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1651040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Paper Rex29c296$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.846137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nongshim RedForce56c294$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3339350.9%200 W · 193 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Paper Rex55c293.6$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4863948%307 W · 332 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Paper Rex6c273$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3866638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3b4…87b5backed Paper Rex31c248.61$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Nongshim RedForce50c230.18$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.0434853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Paper Rex54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12024047.9%115 W · 125 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Nongshim RedForce45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2213243.2%57 W · 75 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed Nongshim RedForce45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.225242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d25…0f79backed Nongshim RedForce45c211.11$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.112075%15 W · 5 L+4.9wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+59.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed Nongshim RedForce51c198.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.411656.9%66 W · 50 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a41…20bdbacked Nongshim RedForce52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3112450%62 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x271a…dce7backed Paper Rex54c182.41$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15fa…f856backed Paper Rex56c178.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004362.8%27 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…b350backed Paper Rex56c178.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72f…7aa3backed Paper Rex55c172.79$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf19…b3eebacked Paper Rex56c167.52$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nongshim RedForce60c167.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.681,42251.3%729 W · 693 L+49.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Paper Rex36c159.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.052962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Paper Rex32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Paper Rex56c155.59$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1323563.4%149 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed Paper Rex15c135.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.435837.9%22 W · 36 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0e03…50f7backed Paper Rex60c133.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-47.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Nongshim RedForce63c123.51$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5815153%80 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2edf…f14fbacked Paper Rex49c121.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.947152.1%37 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Paper Rex56c121.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nongshim RedForce65c109.38$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.831,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb185…98cdbacked Paper Rex56c102.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.252737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdfb…9680backed Nongshim RedForce49c101.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.81580%12 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x453b…db4abacked Nongshim RedForce47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.093759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae5…5d19backed Nongshim RedForce47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked Paper Rex55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552227.3%6 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-44.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xee21…083cbacked Paper Rex53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x548e…9d41backed Nongshim RedForce47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b95…04bbbacked Paper Rex53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3bb…e26bbacked Paper Rex53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533751.4%19 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fc…2b03backed Paper Rex21c97.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Paper Rex30c96.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3939047.9%187 W · 203 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Nongshim RedForce49c96.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8491333.2%303 W · 610 L-89.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Paper Rex33c95.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2917757.1%101 W · 76 L+15.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Paper Rex56c92.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Paper Rex21c91.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.781,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked Paper Rex55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020546.8%96 W · 109 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b7…c8a8backed Paper Rex55c88.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e9…39a0backed Nongshim RedForce46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.966744.8%30 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…202abacked Paper Rex56c85.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486046.7%28 W · 32 L-10.3wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Paper Rex54c83.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x935c…8437backed Paper Rex49c81.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.