Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384a816d98479a76c6cb74c82c72e99b9964758af02109e2ab092375322b78d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 409.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 32c | 391.6$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 30c | 359.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.84 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 273.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 226.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 193.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 189.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 184.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 169.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 149.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 141.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 31c | 138$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 70c | 137.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 73c | 132.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 32c | 110.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 94.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 72c | 87.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 80c | 81.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 22c | 80.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 80.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 79.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 67.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 62.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 73c | 61.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 47.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 30c | 47.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 64c | 44.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 41.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 41.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 46c | 38.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 37.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 46c | 33.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 66c | 32.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 57c | 30.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes | 78c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 59c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 39c | 27.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 24.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 17.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 79c | 17.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 73c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.