Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe526457da5c2fe07281c561808798b3de8fecccb1061cc13f9097be0eef49edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,536$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 1,438$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 346.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 66c | 303.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 72c | 279.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 248.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 216.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 214.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 190.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 175.36$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 172.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 164.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 152$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 151.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 125.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 42c | 115.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 29c | 104.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 34c | 99.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 99.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 86.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 83.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 83.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 60c | 82.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 64c | 78.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 74.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 69.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 36c | 60.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 54.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 50.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 44.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 34c | 42.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 32.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 30.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 43c | 27.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 74c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 62c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 21.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 59c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 67c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…965cbacked No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…b7ccbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.