Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6925f90f1aee4f7be652a4d506ade0e4a344afb22c9a22edf3a9c41b4f63ac25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 1,943$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 865.56$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 36c | 816.76$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.69 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 743.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 411$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 396$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 282.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 206.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 204.81$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 202$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 149.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 116.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 73c | 110.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 49c | 99.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 39c | 98.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 94.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 93.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 89.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 85.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 80.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 70.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 66.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 62.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 76c | 57.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 23c | 53.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed Yes | 45c | 47.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 53c | 43.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 28c | 43.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 51c | 41.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Yes | 46c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 33.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 30c | 33.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 32.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 48c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 22.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 54c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.