MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384b8906eb4e779b9228234b9883138a574703865694c5a461d663a8fb18c4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over | 61c | 1,500$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 942.25$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 851$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 727.93$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 43c | 627.28$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.55 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 567.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 475.41$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.97 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 49c | 414.29$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 385.32$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 63c | 281.86$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 52c | 144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 124.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 52c | 55.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 44.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 30.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 39c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 39c | 28.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 53c | 24.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed Over | 48c | 23.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.