MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8b576c54615b79531b2209c11a696b116705c034d489bebea61059154ed322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 46c | 67,272$30,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,945.05 | 446 | 46.9%209 W · 237 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 54c | 50,000$27,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,999.99 | 554 | 53.2%295 W · 259 L | +22.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 54c | 15,555$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,155.3 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 7,545$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470.61 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 7,087$3,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.07 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 5,661$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.96 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 4,410$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.01 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 3,654$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.56 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.99 | 449 | 45.4%204 W · 245 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 2,048$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.32 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.39 | 1,924 | 53.4%1,028 W · 896 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 1,560$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.6 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 1,517$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 30c | 1,057$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.89 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 870$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.5 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 385 | 53.8%207 W · 178 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 538$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.48 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 57c | 288$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 244.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 5c | 238.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 45c | 167.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 580 | 51.7%300 W · 280 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 157.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 54c | 153$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 133.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 126.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 972 | 53.1%516 W · 456 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 56c | 110.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 747 | 43.4%324 W · 423 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 54c | 73.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 70.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 55c | 70.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…891bbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 56.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Over | 55c | 54.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 53c | 46.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 369 | 51.2%189 W · 180 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 44c | 44.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,197 | 50.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 51c | 41.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 344 | 55.5%191 W · 153 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 46c | 33.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 49c | 31.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 55c | 23.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,221 | 50%610 W · 611 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 902 | 48.4%437 W · 465 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.