NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3859d893319cfbb04fdbba9003d81be3c05c131e90d330841556423c514cd2e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 10,169$4,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,789.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 5,839$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.88 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 51c | 3,952$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.54 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 45c | 1,829$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.21 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 429$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…8ed0backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…f879backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…f5c4backed Over | 57c | 31.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Jazz won
- Rockets vs. JazzJazz won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.