NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-11.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e31a63d4681cbfec0432bc595a90d28e4362e3b73b3d8171bcc8e6576304a5

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Rockets, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,021 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Jazz	51c	11,178$5,701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,477.25	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Rockets	49c	4,841$2,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,372	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Rockets	49c	3,310$1,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,622	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Rockets	49c	1,918$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	45c	1,008$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$554.65	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Rockets	55c	1,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Rockets	49c	989.8$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets	51c	897.72$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.09	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	50c	754.9$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40b…175fbacked Rockets	53c	723.21$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.79	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8476…dc8dbacked Rockets	49c	478.06$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.25	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets	48c	438.06$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.27	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	48c	389.76$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.35	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Rockets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Jazz	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz	41c	172.94$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz	51c	168.96$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.79	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets	15c	148$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.64	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Jazz	52c	140$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.6	127	43.3%55 W · 72 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Jazz	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Rockets	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Rockets	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked Rockets	50c	94.31$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.15	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Rockets	50c	94.31$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.15	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Jazz	46c	90$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.6	244	54.1%132 W · 112 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Rockets	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Rockets	52c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x079a…8fbabacked Jazz	46c	69.99$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b8…68a5backed Rockets	54c	61.11$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa26…c10abacked Rockets	54c	55.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Jazz	47c	42.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.47	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad87…f9a1backed Rockets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	350	52%182 W · 168 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Rockets	54c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Rockets	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz	48c	30.77$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	47c	29.75$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.63	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Rockets	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bca…dcaabacked Rockets	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…701fbacked Rockets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-11.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event