NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d190c48687293a76a835552e123eef7244de83322a957a528745fc69061da4

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Rockets, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	54c	27,236$14,649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,587.2	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Rockets	46c	15,659$7,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,203.36	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Rockets	46c	14,694$6,759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,759.23	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Rockets	47c	12,128$5,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,700	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	-8.6wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Jazz	53c	10,000$5,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,700	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz	53c	7,000$3,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,260	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Rockets	48c	5,346$2,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,566.05	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	53c	4,987$2,639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,348.72	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Rockets	47c	3,266$1,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,535	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Rockets	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.99	722	41.4%299 W · 423 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz	52c	1,730$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.13	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	53c	1,500$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Rockets	48c	1,500$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.99	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets	47c	934.99$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.45	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Jazz	54c	813.06$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.99	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Rockets	49c	799.99$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.99	563	48.5%273 W · 290 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	53c	720.99$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.28	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz	53c	651.49$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.2	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Rockets	45c	533.33$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeac…860abacked Jazz	52c	504$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.44	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Jazz	53c	452.83$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.83	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb56b…8e16backed Jazz	52c	430$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.55	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Jazz	51c	375.47$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.98	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a31…532cbacked Rockets	50c	370$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	50cpaid	-73%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Jazz	53c	333$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.51	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95bc…5b6abacked Rockets	50c	330$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.35	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Rockets	37c	299.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.99	930	41.9%390 W · 540 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Jazz	54c	296$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.16	522	40%209 W · 313 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4025…465bbacked Rockets	50c	234$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.83	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz	54c	230$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.8	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets	19c	227.96$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Jazz	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Rockets	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	-9.3wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Jazz	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	113	46%52 W · 61 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Rockets	49c	198$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2d…74ccbacked Jazz	52c	192.92$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.92	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rockets	15c	192.76$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Jazz	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Rockets	46c	186$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.56	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Jazz	51c	180$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Jazz	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Jazz	51c	163$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.87	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Rockets	50c	151.8$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.9	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Jazz	52c	128.85$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.85	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Jazz	56c	121.43$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.43	631	42%265 W · 366 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Jazz	54c	111.11$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.11	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Jazz	52c	110$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.8	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Jazz	55c	109.09$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Jazz	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Rockets	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2012…128fbacked Rockets	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Jazz	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Rockets	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Rockets	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Jazz	52c	98.08$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.08	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Jazz	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Jazz	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Jazz	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Jazz	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	55c	92$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.4	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Jazz	51c	84$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.16	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebac…be55backed Jazz	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	121	53.7%65 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rockets	45c	58.4$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Jazz	52c	53.85$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf139…1d3bbacked Jazz	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8861…e19fbacked Rockets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xacdb…750fbacked Rockets	48c	38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…fb44backed Jazz	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	125	61.6%77 W · 48 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Jazz	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd87b…946dbacked Rockets	46c	36.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Rockets	49c	36.49$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Jazz	52c	35.58$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.08	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68e1…cc69backed Rockets	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Jazz	52c	29.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.39	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa21d…ba2ebacked Jazz	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Rockets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	75%66 W · 22 L	+12.8wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event