Fifa International · resolved market
Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386a42a976995cf4f4bd48171995c75533a745b360573330aa3938ca4e6a01d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 19c | 1,841$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.32 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 8c | 988.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 16c | 972.71$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 19c | 926.32$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 784.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…9767backed Over | 19c | 718.7$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 10c | 695.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Over | 30c | 668.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 54.5%73 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 19c | 513.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 499.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 122 | 41%50 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 33c | 303.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 251.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 35c | 233.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 75c | 229.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 172.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Over | 19c | 165.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 124.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 18c | 124$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 681 | 41.1%280 W · 401 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Over | 18c | 117.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 78c | 111.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Over | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 18c | 110.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 80c | 99.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 17c | 98.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 21c | 74.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…93b1backed Over | 19c | 55.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 36c | 53.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 42.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…ef3abacked Under | 56c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 65c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5this page
- Denmark vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.