Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38bafd63e938543c624a6dfd47875bb39cb1aaba8c5682fbadf1753ca89e55e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Cerundolo, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Machac | 49c | 2,088$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.15 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Cerundolo | 51c | 1,394$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.56 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Cerundolo | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 45c | 541.31$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.59 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Machac | 55c | 398.05$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Cerundolo | 66c | 370.43$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.92 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 337.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 244 | 63.5%155 W · 89 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Cerundolo | 35c | 307.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Machac | 66c | 299$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…2ddbbacked Cerundolo | 57c | 289.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…f158backed Machac | 55c | 267.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…3ba3backed Machac | 55c | 265.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo | 49c | 255.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Machac | 51c | 253.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Machac | 42c | 230.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Machac | 45c | 215.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Cerundolo | 48c | 201.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 227 | 55.1%125 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Cerundolo | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 202 | 61.4%124 W · 78 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Cerundolo | 50c | 195.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Machac | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Cerundolo | 49c | 98.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Machac | 53c | 91.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cerundolo | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Machac | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cerundolo | 53c | 58.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda98…4e77backed Cerundolo | 48c | 55.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Machac | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Machac | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Machac | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…6b0fbacked Machac | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Cerundolo | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…9936backed Machac | 55c | 35.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cerundolo | 40c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Machac | 50c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Machac | 51c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Cerundolo | 50c | 28.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 185 | 59.5%110 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Machac | 52c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Cerundolo | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Machac | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…a673backed Machac | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Machac | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Cerundolo | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…f531backed Cerundolo | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Cerundolo | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Machac: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Tomas Machac: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas MachacTomas Machac won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs MachacMachac won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.