Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38ce24a412eabc4268fffaa61d66951ac9f6b7896ccde2d126ecfd564199e915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 3,287$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,393$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x495b…8762backed Yes | 24c | 875$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…b8ffbacked Yes | 19c | 771.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3aa…7a89backed Yes | 21c | 675.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 651.05$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 20c | 638.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 42c | 630$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.65 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 18c | 600$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 16c | 594.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 18c | 579.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 397.05$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 19c | 330$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 12c | 256.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 21c | 234.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a78…1e03backed No | 80c | 228.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…ffe7backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 54c | 184.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 74c | 150.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 138.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 21c | 109$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…fb99backed Yes | 60c | 100.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 18c | 84.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 77c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…c469backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…1036backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will Toulouse FC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.