Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $55-$60 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e82f4612a07a027253f770c705ada5db0b479c781c159ca861f3fa2ac3d26b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1afe…ab16backed Yes | 1c | 37,621$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,168$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 839.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed Yes | 52c | 228.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 16c | 142.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…d1b7backed Yes | 46c | 123.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 80.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 65c | 62.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 35c | 57.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…ddb2backed No | 64c | 32.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 48c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 64c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…442fbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…a7dabacked No | 62c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…1088backed No | 63c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…27fbbacked No | 69c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $55-$60 in January?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $45-$50 in January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $50-$55 in January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$75 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.