Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391e1285483b0fcb49a3b317d5f348e7ee5aa9567c18445bac265a3aea75eea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 77c | 1,367$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.61 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over | 23c | 753$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.19 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 51c | 452.54$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 49c | 429.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.88 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 23c | 392.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Over | 25c | 305.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Under | 78c | 256.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 77c | 255.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Over | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Over | 23c | 173$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Over | 23c | 169.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 197 | 52.8%104 W · 93 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 23c | 110.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 402 | 31.3%126 W · 276 L | -28.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…c7b1backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f5…1d29backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?No won
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5)Team Heretics Academy won
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-2.5) vs Barça eSports (+2.5)Barça eSports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES PlayoffsTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 1 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 WinnerBarça eSports won
- LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 4 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.