Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Central Arkansas Bears vs. Bellarmine Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x394e6673bb272e14a5b89c2b7285ba4a67bcbba04e3159e5b86b66a193585a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellarmine Knightsof Central Arkansas Bears, Bellarmine Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Central Arkansas Bears | 40c | 1,262$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.17 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Central Arkansas Bears | 65c | 1,230$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.31 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bellarmine Knights | 59c | 1,077$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.34 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Bellarmine Knights | 32c | 922.93$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.55 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Bellarmine Knights | 43c | 233.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Bellarmine Knights | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Central Arkansas Bears | 53c | 199.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Central Arkansas Bears | 58c | 180$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bellarmine Knights | 48c | 178.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Central Arkansas Bears | 57c | 156$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Central Arkansas Bears | 69c | 77.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f5…8be3backed Bellarmine Knights | 48c | 71.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 127 | 33.9%43 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bellarmine Knights | 46c | 63.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Bellarmine Knights | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bellarmine Knights | 44c | 52.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Bellarmine Knights | 43c | 50.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 215 | 35.3%76 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Bellarmine Knights | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 57c | 47.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bellarmine Knights | 61c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Bellarmine Knights | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bellarmine Knights | 45c | 35.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…a7acbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 45c | 33.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 252 | 54.8%138 W · 114 L | -15.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bellarmine Knights | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bellarmine Knights | 61c | 31.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Bellarmine Knights | 44c | 27.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Bellarmine Knights | 52c | 26.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Bellarmine Knights | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Bellarmine Knights | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Arkansas Bears vs. Bellarmine Knightsthis page
- Central Arkansas Bears vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 155.5Over won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-2.5)Bellarmine Knights won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-3.5)Bellarmine Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.