Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39964a0bec829dc0df94cde66f9a8bc356718c7497b49e08dcc35ccda545a615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,342 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 2,693$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.99 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 1,416$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.89 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 21c | 1,250$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.59 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 77c | 941.69$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 74c | 769.88$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 699.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 22c | 689.15$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…41bbbacked Under | 4c | 675.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 22c | 517.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +3,471.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 7cpaid | +345.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 77c | 482.71$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 429.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 21c | 425.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 78c | 340$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Over | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 76c | 254.94$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 78c | 230.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 41c | 205.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Over | 78c | 192.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 74c | 169.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…6755backed Under | 25c | 166.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c2…7f23backed Over | 75c | 166.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 72c | 43.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 66c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…3185backed Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Over | 76c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…33febacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +275%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)Lille OSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.