Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39975a154708b74c7be94537254b3879c8050ebdbc35c8f5ea3aa2b060d48111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 46c | 429.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.54 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 279.97$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 278.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 260.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 56c | 235.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 190.87$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 180.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 41c | 159.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 125.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 46c | 101.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 94.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 57c | 94.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 89.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 43c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085f…ba9cbacked Yes | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 75.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 72.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 49c | 65.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 59.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 57.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 57c | 57.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 56.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 222 | 38.7%86 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 48.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 46.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 42.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 50c | 39.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed Yes | 55c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 44c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 32.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 50c | 31.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 45c | 30.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 43c | 27.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 50c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 55c | 18.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 55c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.