Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ba93da1177f8fe6680c89dd6ff944249dc26085dc5961ab97987eaac4b870f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 61c | 691.46$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 339.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 283.47$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 238.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 43c | 220.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 42c | 214.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 158.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 153.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 44c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 141.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 51c | 134.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 133$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 74c | 132$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 128.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 117.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 110.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 104.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 37c | 101.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 94.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 92.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 89.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 34c | 78.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 67.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 48c | 60.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 48c | 58.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 38c | 52.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 48.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 46.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…5ac4backed Yes | 52c | 46.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 44.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 41.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 40.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba11…4cb9backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 67c | 39.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 51c | 35.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 35.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 46c | 31.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 43c | 29.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 42c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 39c | 27.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 62c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 56c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 60c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 73c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.