Movies · resolved market
Will “The Woman in Cabin 10” be the top global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39a83c1f5828cf8fde3e14bac91a5b921bb5eacf944ef5db023b95949dc09306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 50c | 1,606$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.61 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 14c | 1,551$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.64 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…410ebacked No | 5c | 967.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 52c | 603.4$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.07 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 80c | 252$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 24c | 247.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 235.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 220.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 218.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 28c | 205.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 61c | 198.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 183.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 144.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 113.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 74c | 113.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed No | 15c | 73.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…f2ecbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…6b8cbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…a040backed No | 39c | 51.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 40c | 28.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…9338backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “The Woman in Cabin 10” be the top global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will “Other” be the top global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.