Movies · resolved market
Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x328e04c31f9677e41787f6209aed8262520eed3be8cc4b5351d583bb8e795741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 55c | 4,057$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.26 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…a639backed Yes | 24c | 2,027$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…c8c7backed Yes | 41c | 1,956$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…e737backed Yes | 10c | 1,508$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…cb76backed Yes | 1c | 1,104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 75c | 1,022$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 1,019$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 76c | 896.16$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…410ebacked Yes | 8c | 664.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 21c | 604.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 80c | 479.81$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 25c | 349.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…f301backed Yes | 31c | 326.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 314.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…08eabacked Yes | 25c | 308.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 68c | 292.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 283.34$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Yes | 50c | 259.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…f4adbacked Yes | 47c | 214.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…3e3dbacked Yes | 24c | 204.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed No | 76c | 195.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e8…d561backed Yes | 32c | 190.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…65c4backed Yes | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 29c | 170.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a4…bf38backed Yes | 24c | 168.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 167.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…0b30backed Yes | 18c | 164.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…0101backed Yes | 64c | 142.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 26c | 134.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…f07ebacked No | 75c | 132.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 31c | 128.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…6c56backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 13c | 122.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…dc71backed Yes | 35c | 117.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2037backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 20c | 88.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 87.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2296…f651backed Yes | 65c | 81.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…c88ebacked Yes | 34c | 74.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…fa80backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadc…0541backed Yes | 20c | 55.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…c03ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…71dabacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…3effbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…17debacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…86dcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…51fcbacked Yes | 28c | 39.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…a4ecbacked Yes | 27c | 37.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…196dbacked Yes | 68c | 28.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…94a3backed Yes | 51c | 27.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…570bbacked No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…5a16backed Yes | 77c | 21.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…a4c8backed Yes | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc5…df10backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…6a45backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…3baabacked No | 76c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will “Other” be the top global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will “The Woman in Cabin 10” be the top global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.