South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39bbba514a1dc83b3ab711034fa362de5dbe9c38cdf683615b6a4cda034a8f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,965 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 24c | 1,071$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.39 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…66b9backed Under | 2c | 838$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…c1acbacked Under | 19c | 419.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 302.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 29c | 241.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 74c | 237$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 206.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 181.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 70c | 141.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 118$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 30c | 91.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 72.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 71c | 38.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…8845backed Over | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 80c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 77c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…21b8backed Over | 68c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.