South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c3f155938afea88632ce0b72ef77694129f327069eb4f4f4ba76452e4eb05aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Vasco da Gamaof Fluminense FC, CR Vasco da Gama
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,794 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CR Vasco da Gama | 64c | 1,611$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.83 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…95fdbacked Fluminense FC | 36c | 1,473$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…4288backed Fluminense FC | 19c | 936.44$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CR Vasco da Gama | 73c | 688.06$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.63 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Fluminense FC | 35c | 430.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Fluminense FC | 24c | 385.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Fluminense FC | 36c | 248.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed CR Vasco da Gama | 61c | 228.05$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CR Vasco da Gama | 61c | 218$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…bd53backed Fluminense FC | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fluminense FC | 38c | 98.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Fluminense FC | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fluminense FC | 38c | 53.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked CR Vasco da Gama | 67c | 47.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Fluminense FC | 36c | 38.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed CR Vasco da Gama | 68c | 37.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Fluminense FC | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed CR Vasco da Gama | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CR Vasco da Gama | 48c | 26.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Fluminense FC | 71c | 14.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.