South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91338541f3de929515e32b979a18967a605f1b89838acabfcf57a571d2a68477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,106 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 2,845$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.69 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 44c | 2,604$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.22 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,943$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.34 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 63c | 1,275$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.66 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 25c | 1,216$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.94 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 14c | 1,046$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.77 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 400.01$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.28 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4594backed Over | 27c | 389.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…d2a3backed Under | 73c | 389.88$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 367.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.13 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 9c | 277.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.68 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 218.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 42c | 205$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 9c | 203.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 27c | 93.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 88.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Over | 58c | 68.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…c413backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Under | 58c | 36.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 42c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 63c | 28.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 26.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 68c | 21.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 64c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 14.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.