Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39dc5b19fbe4f468367a57ce76885176a392d790cd527992c32a95baf024a0d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Hereticsof Natus Vincere, Team Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 9,356$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,760.09 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Heretics | 49c | 3,983$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.72 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Heretics | 49c | 2,552$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.48 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed Team Heretics | 48c | 1,173$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.85 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 900$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf540…cc07backed Team Heretics | 45c | 430.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 382.76$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.68 | 212 | 40.1%85 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Heretics | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Heretics | 47c | 294.26$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.61 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Heretics | 46c | 293.12$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Heretics | 53c | 250.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Team Heretics | 50c | 250$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Heretics | 58c | 215.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb92…b02dbacked Team Heretics | 58c | 214.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 209.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…e363backed Team Heretics | 47c | 206.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Heretics | 50c | 174.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Heretics | 54c | 168.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Team Heretics | 48c | 149$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…3840backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Heretics | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Team Heretics | 63c | 58.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Team Heretics | 73c | 51.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 43.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Team Heretics | 49c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…4c4cbacked Team Heretics | 58c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff PlayoffsTeam Heretics won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Map 2 WinnerTeam Heretics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.