Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9671b05be0baed2f63bf0368e3851074e3ce7881537a4cd2967122293d922c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Hereticsof Natus Vincere, Team Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Team Heretics | 75c | 2,379$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Heretics | 51c | 2,283$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.75 | 657 | 59.4%390 W · 267 L | +50.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 2,274$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.34 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Team Heretics | 67c | 1,853$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.08 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…625dbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 1,463$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.31 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Heretics | 59c | 1,255$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.34 | 686 | 58.3%400 W · 286 L | +56.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Heretics | 46c | 1,177$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.58 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +23.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,100$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 864.24$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed Team Heretics | 45c | 535.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.95 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Heretics | 60c | 522.97$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.72 | 938 | 48%450 W · 488 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Heretics | 60c | 522.33$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.21 | 1,428 | 51.2%731 W · 697 L | +48.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 345.61$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 340.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 331$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0de…4949backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…9932backed Team Heretics | 50c | 281.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 254.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 228$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 204.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Heretics | 75c | 198.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 1,386 | 47.3%655 W · 731 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 179$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…922bbacked Team Heretics | 55c | 164.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 163.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9f80backed Team Heretics | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 185 | 61.1%113 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Team Heretics | 75c | 133.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 124.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 123.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…e363backed Team Heretics | 55c | 110.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Team Heretics | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb92…b02dbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…3185backed Team Heretics | 60c | 88.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Heretics | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 902 | 44.3%400 W · 502 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f68…c2ecbacked Team Heretics | 76c | 33.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…f81ebacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 30.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…2df7backed Team Heretics | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…f983backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 24.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed Team Heretics | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Team Heretics | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…6d41backed Team Heretics | 79c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff PlayoffsTeam Heretics won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Map 1 WinnerTeam Heretics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.