Serie A · resolved market
Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e8661826f89eeb485474b0bfe54aa2174a5dce8c817bde015dc453a9a558ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 5,341$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.07 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 60c | 2,497$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.25 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Under | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 962.46$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.69 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Over | 49c | 917.92$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 28c | 355.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 273.78$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Over | 50c | 216.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Over | 30c | 168.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 49c | 161.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 50c | 151.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 31c | 142$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 49c | 126.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Over | 33c | 122.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 116.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 18c | 82.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 49c | 78.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 19c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Under | 26c | 56.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…947dbacked Over | 42c | 43.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Over | 61c | 34.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb929…280bbacked Under | 52c | 28.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…4d32backed Over | 50c | 28.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 59c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…1cb6backed Under | 52c | 26.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…aca8backed Over | 50c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…c4cdbacked Over | 50c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…59dbbacked Under | 53c | 21.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a49…a53bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…68e2backed Under | 52c | 19.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5this page
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Hellas Verona FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.