MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3610e882d03bf773c668693369ab5537bd5bd4b5686c7a86161752532792bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 2,497$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 980.39$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 864.99$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 726.88$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 25c | 555.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 487.78$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 264.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 255.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 235.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 179.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 162$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 161.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…b819backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 133.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 101.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 62.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 51.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 49.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 48.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 37.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.