MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5098610b3ff857bd353a9b68cdf3d032fd824d6d0e6b8ce7651d68a8a07f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 2,986$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 2,925$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 927$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 853$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.39 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 725.86$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 570$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 441.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.16 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Atlanta Braves | 33c | 302.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 219.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 214.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 188$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 169.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 155.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 127$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 127$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 107.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 91.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 65.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 46.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 27.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.