MLB · resolved market

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53af1bb237800f4b21622a881ee926d56b724bf5b2e7ec1cdeaae2e45ae688ab

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Under	52c	22,805$11,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,946.4	436	47%205 W · 231 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	48c	12,221$5,866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,866.07	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	48c	4,477$2,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,148.96	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	46c	2,822$1,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,294.89	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	48c	2,549$1,224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,223.59	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Under	54c	2,529$1,365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,163.32	195	46.2%90 W · 105 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	48c	2,417$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,157.44	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Over	48c	1,422$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.56	1,137	42.6%484 W · 653 L	+10.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	44c	1,398$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.01	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	52c	1,088$566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.24	1,725	50.1%864 W · 861 L	-4.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under	56c	1,024$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.56	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over	49c	871.71$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.14	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	56c	554.68$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.21	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	52c	506.08$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.92	680	53.2%362 W · 318 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	48c	391.02$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.69	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	43c	320$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.6	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over	47c	298.89$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.48	403	41.4%167 W · 236 L	-20.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under	53c	298.89$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.48	613	52.5%322 W · 291 L	+29.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	382	52.1%199 W · 183 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	52c	195$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a8…6764backed Over	48c	186.87$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.44	264	38.3%101 W · 163 L	-6.9wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under	54c	177.99$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.87	224	48.7%109 W · 115 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fda…b819backed Over	49c	134.27$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.79	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Over	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	344	43.9%151 W · 193 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under	52c	119.99$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.2	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	46c	113.63$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.27	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	994	47.3%470 W · 524 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	292	42.5%124 W · 168 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	167	53.9%90 W · 77 L	+10.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under	54c	98.99$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.53	1,777	49.5%880 W · 897 L	+25.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	49c	95$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.25	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	65c	84.08$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.12	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb1…8436backed Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	276	44.9%124 W · 152 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	54c	81.26$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.45	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under	52c	79.75$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.63	528	52.1%275 W · 253 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over	48c	76$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.48	101	54.5%55 W · 46 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Over	49c	75$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Over	29c	73.36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	234	35%82 W · 152 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	412	49.5%204 W · 208 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over	46c	67.09$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	404	47.8%193 W · 211 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Under	55c	64.91$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.21	342	55.3%189 W · 153 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe14a…62bebacked Over	46c	61$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.06	151	45.7%69 W · 82 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	52c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.1	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	52c	56$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.88	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over	46c	52.65$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	1,804	53.8%970 W · 834 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Over	48c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	250	34.8%87 W · 163 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under	61c	40.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	170	47.1%80 W · 90 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over	39c	40.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	295	47.1%139 W · 156 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c25…e36dbacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x887f…7289backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over	49c	40.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	1,245	56.9%708 W · 537 L	+31.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	738	49.3%364 W · 374 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Under	54c	36.15$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.54	882	47.7%421 W · 461 L	+3.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Under	53c	35.23$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.56	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-13.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00c5…b5e9backed Under	55c	32.45$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.6	72	58.3%42 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Under	54c	30.32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.83	172	55.8%96 W · 76 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x409d…8f47backed Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	110	50.9%56 W · 54 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Over	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	920	46%423 W · 497 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	348	46.8%163 W · 185 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over	49c	21.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	2,021	39.5%798 W · 1,223 L	-25.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Under	70c	15.51$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.65	275	57.1%157 W · 118 L	+8.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves won
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 2.5Over won
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event