Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3db3955ddd25854f5880843265cdf7a2d30249a37a39ce06cc6f7dca03a119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 0c | 10,399$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 6c | 2,471$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 9c | 1,395$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 743.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…a163backed Yes | 3c | 645.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 604.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 17c | 583.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 518.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…c4c5backed Yes | 10c | 499.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 18c | 441.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked Yes | 42c | 405.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed Yes | 14c | 383.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 9c | 355.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 20c | 302$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 299.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 23c | 246$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 240.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…ffd7backed Yes | 15c | 239.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 230.68$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 224.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 5c | 215.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 78c | 210.81$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 204.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 76c | 204.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…47afbacked Yes | 16c | 201.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 25c | 200.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 194.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 18c | 181.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d541backed Yes | 6c | 180.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 18c | 175.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0feb…ba7cbacked Yes | 9c | 166.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 139.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…41adbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 11c | 133.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 9c | 131.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 13c | 124.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…79bdbacked Yes | 19c | 113.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…817ebacked Yes | 39c | 112.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 14c | 108.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 15c | 96.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…2b6fbacked Yes | 15c | 85.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 58c | 80.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 38c | 79.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 69c | 73.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 73.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…f6e8backed Yes | 16c | 71.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 43c | 66.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 62.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 36c | 55.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad41…d390backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 61c | 54.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9080…798ebacked Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 47c | 53.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…46c7backed Yes | 23c | 53.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 36c | 42.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…d4bcbacked Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…eeefbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked Yes | 36c | 32.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 69c | 27.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…636fbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0dcabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.