Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c27c10d5a5e5a860a1172d0da5d36a092196fec2cc751bdacabc8fa62f358f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked No | 1c | 1,762$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 38c | 981.95$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 7c | 913.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 47c | 707.1$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.01 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 15c | 700.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 674.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.44 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 652.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.48 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 7c | 500.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 480.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.65 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 376.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 72c | 328.52$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 16c | 314.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 17c | 306.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 29c | 300.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 285.44$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 237.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 225.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 213.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 21c | 210.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 210.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 48c | 204.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 200.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 38c | 166.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 153.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 151.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 22c | 147.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 30c | 147.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 38c | 146.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 57c | 145.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 29c | 142.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 20c | 139.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…666bbacked Yes | 72c | 139.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 51c | 139.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 63c | 138.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 62c | 138.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 134.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 65c | 133.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 9c | 133.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 132.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 18c | 124.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 29c | 120.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 64c | 120.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 112.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 33c | 112.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 40c | 103$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 98.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 74c | 98.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 30c | 95.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed Yes | 17c | 93.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 31c | 82.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 32c | 82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 74c | 81.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 28c | 76.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 46c | 75.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 75c | 75.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 20c | 75.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 34c | 74.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 33c | 73.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 27c | 73.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 40c | 71.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 61c | 68.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 66.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 16c | 64.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 80c | 57.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 53.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes | 38c | 53.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 52.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6b…996dbacked Yes | 45c | 50.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 74c | 50.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c77abacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…a901backed Yes | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 57c | 49.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 48.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 32c | 47.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 70c | 47.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd9…3ffabacked No | 63c | 46.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 45.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…74c0backed Yes | 29c | 43.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 41.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 41c | 36.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 70c | 36.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.