Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222edda5d1bb561fe31202f895e94fc2e1b34eabffd93182bfc41ce04f5d4221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 3,150$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,980$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 65c | 1,414$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 7c | 899.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 17c | 694.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 612.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed No | 56c | 578.15$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.96 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 512.41$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 468.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 443.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 384.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 359.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 300.79$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 298.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 10c | 257.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 28c | 204.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 20c | 181.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 23c | 163.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 23c | 162.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 6c | 160.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 159.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 152.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 150.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 10c | 146.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 135.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 12c | 127.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 118.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 38c | 106.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 103.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 25c | 99.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 99.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b8e9backed Yes | 27c | 97.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 95.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 26c | 72.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 79c | 66.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 77c | 65.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 47c | 63.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 63.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed No | 76c | 57.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 79c | 42.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 79c | 42.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…bd0bbacked No | 79c | 37.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4903…6889backed No | 76c | 36.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5900…e1bbbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 79c | 30.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 76c | 29.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 49c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 53c | 27.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…2bf7backed No | 76c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda9…4dd8backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 80c | 21.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…20f0backed No | 80c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 58c | 18.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 80c | 12.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.