Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9ee554d71cbbf95632ec238165e6cef601ea78376a5fc8bc0d118dbd1a6fc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 6c | 839.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…8a24backed Yes | 60c | 826.23$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 37c | 686.95$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.22 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 610.75$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 412.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 371.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 357.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 28c | 339.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 334.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 284.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 15c | 284.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 27c | 256.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 75c | 249.58$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 34c | 248.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 246$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 245.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 229$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 17c | 219.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 24c | 214.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…6ecfbacked Yes | 15c | 198.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 18c | 183.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 26c | 168.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 160.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 160.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 37c | 148.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 148.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 31c | 143.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 142.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 29c | 137$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…666bbacked Yes | 40c | 136.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 48c | 134.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 116.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 31c | 111.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 110.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 23c | 108.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 17c | 103.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 15c | 100.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 19c | 94.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 11c | 94.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 92.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…37aabacked Yes | 69c | 81.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 27c | 81.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 51c | 76.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 76.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 45c | 73.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 32c | 73.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 42c | 72.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 69c | 72.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 37c | 72.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 33c | 71.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed Yes | 44c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…f6e8backed Yes | 34c | 70.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 68.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 68.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 31c | 66.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 29c | 65.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 68c | 59.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 67c | 59.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 57.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 54.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 33c | 54.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 52.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 67c | 50.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed No | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 40c | 48.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 65c | 48.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 39c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 41.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…d902backed Yes | 37c | 40.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…c856backed Yes | 63c | 39.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 73c | 37.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 65c | 37.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 72c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 35.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 32c | 32.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.