Premier League · resolved market
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a465d77a9d610bc568d09bf61c5b23099357370d99c5bd1e159e2e24b50c703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 77c | 2,186$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.09 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Over | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.57 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…600bbacked Over | 23c | 686.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +239.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 23c | 638$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.26 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 469.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 428.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.06 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 426.89$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 58c | 399.71$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 351.61$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.11 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 4c | 331.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 38c | 237.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 63c | 236.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 63c | 169$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 167.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 25c | 123.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 26c | 116$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 59c | 100.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 21c | 83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 65c | 74.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 69c | 72.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…b668backed Under | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 78c | 61.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 35c | 58.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…472bbacked Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 49.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…ad9abacked Over | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 44c | 46.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 51c | 40.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…dbb5backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fb…9527backed Over | 38c | 26.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.