Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Murray State Racers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4846af8ee94bcdcb8fe4f4fb68204fd52c34b77e1d0c49fb0d98e2d908a2d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana State Sycamoresof Murray State Racers, Indiana State Sycamores
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Murray State Racers | 54c | 100,943$54,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,504.91 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Indiana State Sycamores | 46c | 88,825$40,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,965.5 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 46c | 6,813$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,665 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Indiana State Sycamores | 46c | 5,530$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.43 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Murray State Racers | 53c | 3,386$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.58 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 2,248$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.34 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked Murray State Racers | 54c | 670.27$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 630$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Murray State Racers | 22c | 282.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…19bcbacked Murray State Racers | 53c | 258.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Indiana State Sycamores | 12c | 179.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.79 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 118.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Indiana State Sycamores | 46c | 117.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Murray State Racers | 36c | 102.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 88.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Indiana State Sycamores | 49c | 75.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…42d7backed Indiana State Sycamores | 49c | 71.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Murray State Racers | 58c | 66.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Indiana State Sycamores | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…377cbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Murray State Racers | 70c | 50.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…09eebacked Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 44.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…691bbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 54c | 44.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…c23dbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…18f4backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 41.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…5667backed Indiana State Sycamores | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…815bbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 62c | 34.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 34.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Indiana State Sycamores | 53c | 33.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf498…3d66backed Indiana State Sycamores | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Indiana State Sycamores | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…b144backed Indiana State Sycamores | 51c | 21.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-3.5)this page
- Murray State Racers vs. Indiana State SycamoresMurray State Racers won
- Murray State Racers vs. Indiana State Sycamores: O/U 163.5Under won
- Murray State Racers vs. Indiana State Sycamores: O/U 164.5Under won
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-4.5)Indiana State Sycamores won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.