Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4a3bbf4fcfdfb1ad4a7a8db3354291f0b800a30fc27d24411ea7bf1ecde638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 55c | 36,271$20,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,095.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 56c | 19,207$10,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,755.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 45c | 14,429$6,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,868.45 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 45c | 9,800$4,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,439 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 6,168$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.05 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 63c | 4,238$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.51 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 46c | 4,169$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.81 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 46c | 2,000$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 54c | 1,975$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.5 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,936$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked No | 56c | 1,631$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked No | 35c | 1,442$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 54c | 1,346$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.16 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Yes | 46c | 1,174$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…be48backed No | 55c | 1,061$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 53c | 1,054$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.62 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 70c | 827.99$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 643.35$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.44 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 54c | 556.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 46c | 440$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 53c | 404.6$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.44 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 53c | 376$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 63c | 367.94$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 32c | 361.15$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed No | 54c | 339.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 54c | 319.3$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…2b8bbacked Yes | 39c | 292.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 47c | 212.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 46c | 209.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b9…3d59backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked No | 53c | 189.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 54c | 148$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 46c | 131.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…7e2ebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 49c | 98.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 46c | 85.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 22c | 69.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 46c | 69.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 55c | 58.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 43c | 57.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d55…6014backed Yes | 39c | 54.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Yes | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Yes | 52c | 52.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…b8a1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +65%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 47c | 49.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked No | 24c | 43.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…a6edbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed No | 57c | 41.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff9…0446backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked No | 57c | 34.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Yes | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 46c | 29.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 58c | 26.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Yes | 46c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…8297backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 59c | 17.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?No won
- Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.