Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: YBN Team vs avice Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a66970ffcd9ab3cb8df8043939851e988cd2823e7692f85a81f00130d42db49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- avice Teamof YBN Team, avice Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked YBN Team | 50c | 2,163$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.19 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked avice Team | 68c | 1,163$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.92 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked avice Team | 69c | 1,116$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.44 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked YBN Team | 30c | 869.98$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.99 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked YBN Team | 30c | 573.63$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.09 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed YBN Team | 34c | 530.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5233…eb29backed avice Team | 48c | 470.83$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5ea0backed YBN Team | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked avice Team | 54c | 360.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked avice Team | 48c | 315.9$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed YBN Team | 36c | 280.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked avice Team | 71c | 271.79$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked YBN Team | 20c | 212.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed YBN Team | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked avice Team | 55c | 166.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked avice Team | 59c | 152.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked YBN Team | 26c | 133.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…ef1cbacked YBN Team | 51c | 109.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed avice Team | 66c | 108.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed YBN Team | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked avice Team | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed YBN Team | 38c | 95.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…c1fbbacked YBN Team | 43c | 88.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked YBN Team | 20c | 77.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed avice Team | 54c | 74.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…7dccbacked YBN Team | 41c | 55.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed YBN Team | 28c | 54.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked avice Team | 57c | 50.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…4be9backed avice Team | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed avice Team | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…ecc5backed avice Team | 48c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed avice Team | 70c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked avice Team | 70c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: YBN Team vs avice Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: YBN Team vs avice Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group Bavice Team won
- Dota 2: YBN Team vs avice Team - Game 1 Winneravice Team won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.