MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac0a07ab19cf336efd5d3df1e6d12e4af61068625b5add18d40e12bdc36b16d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 47c | 485.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.73 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 52c | 450$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.64 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 49c | 409$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Yes | 55c | 261.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed No | 76c | 79.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 61c | 65.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 49c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 50c | 52.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Yes | 38c | 44.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Yes | 39c | 43.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Yes | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 46c | 35.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.