MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x082e4eb406c2fd0f3943a40b576ce61d3b033b8ef8b7468b107ecf7bf2e80b41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 49c | 3,483$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 2,941$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.18 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 2,684$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 49c | 2,285$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 1,800$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 66c | 1,331$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.46 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,289$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.96 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 56c | 1,091$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets | 57c | 819$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.83 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…9372backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 614.18$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.09 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 64c | 565.57$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.07 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 64c | 494.99$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 390.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 346.65$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 49c | 317.97$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 64c | 305.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed New York Mets | 60c | 275.58$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked New York Mets | 65c | 225$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked New York Mets | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 158.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 66c | 80.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 80.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked New York Mets | 56c | 70.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a6…bfeebacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 67.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 66.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 53.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked New York Mets | 23c | 47.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 35c | 47.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 42.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 42.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed New York Mets | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 52c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.