MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef623229043ca2b1e314d13068f26065591e9d42a7942ac49c946288fd21ea5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof New York Mets, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 7,180$5,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 20c | 7,008$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 37c | 306.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 206.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 37c | 174.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed New York Mets | 48c | 131.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…706dbacked New York Mets | 38c | 127.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked New York Mets | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Mets | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 37c | 97.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 87.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 37c | 48.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 30.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…c092backed New York Mets | 38c | 30.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.