MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3af3f1c822b6e6d8139ce619d44744a361b6639f620ad4a87ebace153df75e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 40c | 2,175$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.07 | 487 | 45.2%220 W · 267 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 1,840$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.27 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 1,137$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.61 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 38c | 464.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 901 | 49.1%442 W · 459 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 21c | 389.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.57 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 22c | 384.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 300.63$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 26c | 162.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 12c | 158.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,209 | 29%351 W · 858 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 62c | 149.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 70c | 120.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 179 | 44.7%80 W · 99 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 21c | 62.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 73c | 56.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 70c | 37.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 55c | 32.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 74c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 78c | 14.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.