MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e77b1cef86f405482c5f8ff7b8751a6d6a09e0f86bb0e38a1e45593d8501255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $476,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $476,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5dab…22e1backed Over | 49c | 272,805$132,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140,067.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 195,171$92,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,440.67 | 448 | 46.7%209 W · 239 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 51c | 189,134$96,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,658.31 | 908 | 46.5%422 W · 486 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 68,254$35,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,492.1 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 43,625$23,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,121.35 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 38,725$20,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,055.23 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 53c | 34,000$17,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,850.4 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 19,113$9,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,938.63 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 13,337$7,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,067.65 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 12,500$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 1,159 | 49.3%571 W · 588 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 11,245$5,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,959.85 | 933 | 53.9%503 W · 430 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 8,546$4,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444 | 1,604 | 48.6%779 W · 825 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 52c | 4,500$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 52c | 3,105$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.57 | 378 | 56.9%215 W · 163 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 51c | 2,929$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.91 | 128 | 63.3%81 W · 47 L | +13.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,800$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,086$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.2 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 464 | 51.1%237 W · 227 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 1,941$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.26 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,731$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.37 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 52c | 1,707$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.76 | 374 | 49.2%184 W · 190 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.52 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Under | 52c | 935.88$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.42 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 888$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 881 | 52.9%466 W · 415 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 5c | 800.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 780$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.4 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 747.07$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.89 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 600$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 525$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.65 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1,855 | 50.6%939 W · 916 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 718 | 44.3%318 W · 400 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 499.55$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.44 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 52c | 488.07$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 479.24$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.16 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Under | 53c | 411.32$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 52c | 400.58$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 249 | 48.2%120 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 278.65$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 53c | 226.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 315 | 54%170 W · 145 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 53c | 219$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 136.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 131$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 117.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 342 | 33.9%116 W · 226 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…0f04backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 83.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 53c | 72.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 48c | 72.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 901 | 49.1%442 W · 459 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 70.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 76c | 68.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 49c | 61.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 441 | 49%216 W · 225 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 51c | 58.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Under | 52c | 57.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 872 | 54.2%473 W · 399 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 66c | 45.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 749 | 43.4%325 W · 424 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 52c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Under | 52c | 29.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…32b7backed Under | 53c | 29.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 53c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 53c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 53c | 19.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 66c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.