TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,373 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Milwaukee Brewers47c21,287$10,000 inWon+$11,287.4125445.3%115 W · 139 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets53c10,093$5,349 inLost-$5,349.283,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets53c7,500$3,975 inLost-$3,9755,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed New York Mets54c3,697$2,012 inLost-$2,01225451.2%130 W · 124 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers47c2,000$940 inWon+$1,060.211,47851%754 W · 724 L-19.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked New York Mets53c1,500$795 inLost-$79550351.9%261 W · 242 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed New York Mets53c1,448$768 inLost-$767.551,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets53c694$368 inLost-$367.827,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets31c571.5$177 inLost-$177.038,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Milwaukee Brewers78c382.26$298 inWon+$84.117442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Milwaukee Brewers46c299.99$138 inWon+$16259752.6%314 W · 283 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked New York Mets54c183$99 inLost-$98.8275350.6%381 W · 372 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets43c151.95$66 inLost-$65.681,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed New York Mets54c101.82$55 inLost-$54.5742348.2%204 W · 219 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Milwaukee Brewers45c80$36 inWon+$4422457.1%128 W · 96 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked New York Mets54c74.81$40 inLost-$40.474752.5%392 W · 355 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Milwaukee Brewers46c64.54$30 inWon+$34.5425948.3%125 W · 134 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…b490backed Milwaukee Brewers46c58.7$27 inWon+$31.72138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed New York Mets54c50$27 inLost-$26.8387254.2%473 W · 399 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed New York Mets54c33.21$18 inLost-$17.933,03648%1,458 W · 1,578 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Milwaukee Brewers46c32.61$15 inWon+$17.614761.7%29 W · 18 L+7.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+31.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked New York Mets54c32$17 inLost-$17.2894456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers46c23.91$11 inWon+$12.9124844.8%111 W · 137 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets53c20$11 inLost-$10.694069.3%651 W · 289 L+93.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.