Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b02add93b194306bc4e7b32f0c08b2ecfdf3c64069076dbd8a9a8b87131b92e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Peruof Haiti, Peru
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Haiti | 21c | 3,028$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.49 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Peru | 76c | 2,228$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.05 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Haiti | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed Haiti | 32c | 1,400$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.03 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Peru | 68c | 686.14$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Haiti | 13c | 588$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Peru | 74c | 427.54$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Peru | 78c | 394.4$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Haiti | 15c | 299.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Peru | 68c | 295.88$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Haiti | 15c | 161.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…ca25backed Haiti | 21c | 157.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Haiti | 15c | 110.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Haiti | 14c | 81.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Haiti | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Peru | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Peru | 75c | 40.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Haiti (-1.5)this page
- Haiti vs. Peru: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 0.5Over won
- Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5Over won
- Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5Over won
- Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 3.5Under won
- Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 4.5Under won
- Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Haiti (-2.5)Peru won
- Spread: Peru (-1.5)Haiti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.