Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b1345eb3c4f29790faa466b523e366013f4edfe47f6f55999e88e28ee0f53c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad87…dd81backed Down | 10c | 9,256$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 1c | 7,420$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 1c | 4,516$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Down | 31c | 2,170$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.65 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 5c | 1,605$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 1c | 1,589$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 39c | 1,531$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.12 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Down | 1c | 1,091$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 75c | 742.47$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.94 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6a…f458backed Down | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 13c | 689.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Down | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 3c | 571$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Up | 59c | 521.85$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.96 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 74c | 512.68$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Down | 3c | 410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…adc7backed Up | 63c | 390.54$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…2d08backed Up | 55c | 350.61$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…0508backed Down | 13c | 341.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a9…b432backed Down | 4c | 322$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 41c | 294.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Up | 62c | 252.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Up | 74c | 242.01$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…0d61backed Down | 50c | 205.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Up | 70c | 195.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 73c | 184.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Up | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…34c0backed Down | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Down | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 52c | 83.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…7163backed Down | 46c | 50.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Down | 37c | 42.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ca…50c9backed Up | 67c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…395dbacked Up | 72c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…205cbacked Down | 55c | 20.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.