NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b1b990c01474dabc20502b8fa3d95d474842b1187db19079293465c4e5fbb23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 63c | 2,994$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.96 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 62c | 2,341$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.77 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 2,220$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.44 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.35 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 892.5$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.95 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 41c | 736.98$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.82 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 433.9$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 198.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 120.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 117.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…cf6fbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…cecdbacked Over | 51c | 84.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 38c | 73.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…e19abacked Under | 46c | 64.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Under | 45c | 61.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 61c | 54.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 45.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 35.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 63c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…d4dcbacked Over | 64c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Golden Knights vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.