TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Penguins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penguinsof Golden Knights, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$999,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,018,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $999,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 610 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Golden Knights57c197,180$112,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,492.5319848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights58c177,221$102,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,788.1779350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Penguins42c167,344$70,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,059.3867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Penguins43c120,265$51,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,550.9556152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Penguins43c80,000$34,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,60014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Golden Knights57c76,307$43,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,494.8148545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Penguins42c40,476$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,476.1824349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights58c27,205$15,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,778.961953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins43c15,665$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,006.651,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Penguins42c12,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,25032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Penguins43c11,836$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,750.6350049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Golden Knights57c11,650$6,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,640.514553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins43c9,303$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,304.1661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Penguins42c8,500$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,929.9319051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins42c7,500$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3501,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Golden Knights8c6,766$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.3560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Golden Knights6c6,201$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.2539344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf52b…905bbacked Golden Knights58c6,034$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Penguins42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Penguins42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Penguins43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8502951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Golden Knights57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.961,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Golden Knights0c4,891$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.342504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Golden Knights1c4,740$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6338748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Penguins43c4,687$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.591,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…e391backed Golden Knights57c4,506$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Penguins43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,28039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Penguins76c3,676$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.1215057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Golden Knights5c3,634$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2282043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Penguins42c3,220$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.121849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked Golden Knights1c3,215$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7401,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5b…88acbacked Golden Knights38c2,987$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.52339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Penguins61c2,792$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.912,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins64c2,783$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.741,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Golden Knights58c2,604$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.5485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Golden Knights58c2,586$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights58c2,586$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Golden Knights58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.141248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Penguins43c2,500$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42527048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.9960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Penguins43c2,460$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.244551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Penguins43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.5814940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Penguins42c2,300$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.4891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Penguins43c2,300$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,31183652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights31c2,220$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.092,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins76c2,120$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.521,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Penguins43c2,000$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4d…5c94backed Penguins42c1,995$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed4a…de1fbacked Golden Knights58c1,995$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…4b0bbacked Penguins42c1,995$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9270…a22cbacked Golden Knights58c1,995$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x506f…e8c8backed Penguins42c1,995$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+68.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3225…0386backed Penguins42c1,995$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5d…cc37backed Penguins42c1,995$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…75f9backed Golden Knights58c1,995$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.11127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-47.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0de…b8debacked Golden Knights58c1,995$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ad…4325backed Golden Knights58c1,995$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.11060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc38a…b46ebacked Penguins42c1,990$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd481…ab69backed Golden Knights58c1,990$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b6…4682backed Penguins42c1,990$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02e7…c57ebacked Golden Knights58c1,990$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96e…7934backed Penguins42c1,990$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-52.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc68f…79f2backed Penguins42c1,990$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd357…7a96backed Golden Knights58c1,990$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20a…9191backed Golden Knights58c1,990$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0da4…6ae2backed Penguins42c1,990$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.21050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf118…6e16backed Golden Knights58c1,990$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.21050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a73…05acbacked Golden Knights58c1,980$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0687…89dabacked Penguins42c1,980$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x175b…cc57backed Penguins42c1,975$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5af1…fe57backed Penguins42c1,975$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b0…36d3backed Penguins42c1,975$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa668…3bdabacked Golden Knights58c1,975$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43a6…1712backed Golden Knights58c1,975$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…770abacked Golden Knights58c1,975$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69c0…0162backed Penguins42c1,970$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a8…b246backed Golden Knights58c1,970$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd988…4a00backed Golden Knights58c1,970$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.6850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b47…ca6abacked Penguins42c1,970$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaec3…4f1fbacked Golden Knights58c1,970$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe50a…c377backed Penguins42c1,970$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85f…683fbacked Penguins42c1,970$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f2…bd2abacked Golden Knights58c1,970$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71fc…5327backed Penguins42c1,970$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c8…b1f8backed Golden Knights58c1,970$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.61050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5244…e40fbacked Golden Knights58c1,965$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0f…3ffdbacked Penguins42c1,965$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+71%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…e181backed Penguins42c1,965$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b47…0e85backed Penguins42c1,965$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+90.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aba…926ebacked Golden Knights58c1,965$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fd…93a3backed Golden Knights58c1,965$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26eb…ab3abacked Golden Knights58c1,960$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+87.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18d2…5c6ebacked Penguins42c1,960$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ade…b218backed Golden Knights58c1,960$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe54…bac2backed Penguins42c1,960$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…7054backed Penguins42c1,955$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.91070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x522f…6a83backed Penguins42c1,955$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.9785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+90.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbf8…96bebacked Golden Knights58c1,955$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.91050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc213…f073backed Golden Knights58c1,955$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.