Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2f96f90a32db0716476e2aa41ff85f757c2741be4a3d8e8431abe7b2d0e7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of VP.Prodigy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked VP.Prodigy | 64c | 2,214$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.33 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 1,200$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…3841backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 2c | 925$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed VP.Prodigy | 2c | 878.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 712.66$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 657.66$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 362.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.55 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 326.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 315$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.37 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 301.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 262.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 190.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 149.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 136.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked VP.Prodigy | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 54.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…3863backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 33.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)VP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.